ISSUED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION SUPPORT TO DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE IN NIGERIA ELECTION OBSERVATION HUB (EU-SDGN EOH) – 14TH AUGUST 2026
INTRODUCTION
The Osun State off-cycle governorship election will take place tomorrow, Saturday, 15th August 2026. The European Union Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria Election Observation Hub (EU-SDGN EOH), comprising the Centre for Media and Society (CEMESO), the International Press Centre (IPC), the Nigerian Women Trust Fund (NWTF), TAF Africa, The Kukah Centre (TKC) and Yiaga Africa has deployed 843 election observers across the State ahead of the election. This pre-election statement, which is a follow-up to the pre-election assessment report issued on 12 th July 2026, presents the EU-SDGN EOH’s final assessment of the pre-election environment.
As one of the election observation groups accredited by the INEC to cover the election, the EU- SDGN EOH affirms its commitment to the principles of independence, impartiality and non-partisanship that are the foundation of credible election observation. The Hub will observe, document and report on the electoral process in strict adherence to the Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation, the Code of Conduct for International Election Observers and in full compliance with the INEC Code of Conduct for Observers.
The Osun State Governorship Election is of considerable national significance. Coming exactly five months to the 2027 General Election and two months after the Ekiti governorship election will not only serve as another opportunity to further test the new provisions of the electoral legal framework, but it will also give INEC, the security and law enforcement agencies, electoral stakeholders and the public further insight into the opportunities, threats and challenges in the organisational, operational and logistics preparations ahead of the 2027 General Election.
With the INEC addition of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate Dr. Francis Olugbenga Ajala and his running mate, Faseke Babajimi Oladipo, to the list of candidates yesterday, 12th August 2026, in compliance with the 22nd August 2026 judgement of the Federal High Court, Abuja will be contested by 15 candidates in 3,763 polling units across the 332 Registration Areas and 30 Local Government Areas of Osun State. The number of registered voters is 2,339,233, which is an increase of 384,433 (19.67%) over the 1,954,800 registered voters in the 2023 General Election and 386,846 (19.81%) more than the 1,952,387 for the 2022 Governorship election. Of the 2,339,233 registered voters, 1,906,390 (81.50%) PVCs have been collected, including 6,101 printed downloadable PVCs.
The EU-SDGN EOH notes that the political landscape in Osun State has undergone a significant realignment since the 2023 General Election. Governor Adeleke, elected in 2022 on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is now contesting under Accord while the APC candidate is Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, a former Commissioner for Finance in the State and until recently the Director General of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) and Najeem Salaam, the Speaker of the State House of Assembly from 2011 to 2019 is the candidate of the African Democratic Party (ADC).
INEC PREPAREDNESS
INEC has declared its operational, technological and logistical readiness for the election. The Resident Electoral Commissioner, Mrs. Oluwatoyin Babalola, has confirmed the configuration and full charging of all BVAS devices, the batching and distribution of non-sensitive materials and the arrival, inspection and delivery of the reprinted ballot papers with the inclusion of the SDP to the 30 LGA offices. An estimated 17,500 ad-hoc personnel have been recruited, trained and deployed for the election, and 97 Super Registration Area Centres (Super-RACs) and 105 RACs have been activated to decentralise deployment and support the timely opening of the 3,763 polling units by 8:30 am tomorrow.
The EU-SDGN EOH is aware that on Saturday, 1 st August 2026, INEC conducted a mock accreditation exercise in four (4) locations in each of the three senatorial districts across 12 of the 30 LGAs in the State to test the functionality of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS). The exercise, which recorded a large turnout of potential voters, exposed some technical challenges, including the inability of some BVAS devices to recognise the biometrics of some voters at several polling units. INEC has since reported that the issues identified during the mock accreditation have been resolved and increased the number of BVAS devices from 4,427 to 5,130, with 1,367 BVAS as backups. The Commission has also assured stakeholders that all polling unit result sheets will be scanned and transmitted directly to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) as soon as voting closes on Election Day. The Commission must sustain its vigilance and neutrality by ensuring the timely and flawless deployment of personnel and materials and the transparent, real-time collation, transmission and announcement of results on Election Day.
ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION AND COLLATION OF RESULTS
The EU-SDGN EOH notes that Section 60(3) of the Electoral Act 2026makes it a legal requirement for Presiding Officers to electronically transmit the polling unit result (Form EC8A) to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV). Where transmission fails due to communication failure, the signed physical EC8A remains the primary legal source for collation and declaration.
The EU-SDGN EOH is concerned by the introduction by INEC of an electronic EC8A on the BVAS as part of a validation step, without clearly stating where these results are transmitted to or what purpose they serve. Furthermore, the results transmitted from polling units do not appear immediately on the IReV as they pass through an unexplained backend validation process before publication, with no public information on what is checked, who conducts the review, or how long it should take. This means that the physical EC8A, the scanned image on the IReV, the copy retained on the BVAS, and the electronically transmitted e-EC8A may exist with no explicitly stated rule on which version prevails if they differ.
The EU-SDGN EOH further notes that the IReV only publishes polling-unit results (EC8A) but not ward-level (EC8B) or Local Government-level (EC8C) collation results, leaving citizens unable to verify whether the total announced matches the individual polling unit results. In addition, Section 65 of the Electoral Act 2026 permits INEC to review a result declaration within seven days but only based on a report from its own officials, a narrow trigger that may limit this safeguard where the officials responsible for reporting are unwilling or unable to act.
Based on these concerns, the EU-SDGN EOH alongside the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room and 13 other organisations issued a common statement on 10 th August 2026 calling on INEC to subject the backend validation process to independent scrutiny, publish a results-transmission protocol explaining the process end to end and reconsider the use of the electronic EC8A given its potential for misuse. The EU-SDGN EOH re-echoes this call and urges INEC to ensure that the election outcome can be demonstrably traced through a transparent and verifiable result chain from polling unit to declaration.
ELECTION SECURITY
Osun State enters election day with a high overall security risk. Of the 30 LGAs, Osogbo and Irewole are rated as critical risk, while Boripe, Obokun, Ilesa West, Ife Central, Ife North, Iwo, Ede North, Ifedayo, Ilesa East, Isokan and Irepodun are rated high risk, and the other 17 LGAs carry moderate or low risks. These risks are driven in the main by four interlinked acts of organised political violence linked to party-aligned thugs and youth groups; the unresolved dispute over control of LGA secretariats; criminal actors exploiting the political environment for targeted attacks and an active ecosystem pervaded by fake news, misinformation and disinformation. The risks involve coordinated attacks on party leaders and offices, multi location shootings, political abductions and violence during campaigns and rallies.
The Nigeria Police Force, as the lead agency in election security in collaboration with the Osun State Police Command, has developed an operational framework for the election, with a proposal to deploy up to 30,000 security and law enforcement personnel, including specialised, tactical and canine units. These personnel are drawn from Police formations across the country and complemented by support from the Nigerian Army, the Department of State Services, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps, the Nigeria Immigration Service, the Nigerian Correctional Service, the Federal Road Safety Corps, and the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, coordinated through the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES).
The EU-SDGN EOB is concerned about the conduct of security and law enforcement personnel, including allegations of misuse of force, police brutality, illegal arrests and extra-judicial killings These allegations have direct effect on public trust in the professionalism, neutrality and non- partisanship of the security and law enforcement agencies, given that these same agencies are expected to act impartially in securing the election and protecting the sanctity of the vote. The Hub calls on all security and law enforcement agencies to adhere to the code of conduct and rules of engagement for security personnel on electoral duty and urges all security and law enforcement agencies to remain highly professional, impartial, and diligent in discharging their primary responsibility of guaranteeing the safety and security of voters, election officials, the media, accredited observers and other stakeholders.
INCLUSIVE PARTICIPATION
The EU-SDGN EOH is concerned that women, youths and persons with disabilities (PwDs) remain significantly under represented, despite constituting the majority of voters. Women who constitute 49.50% and 52.79% of the population and registered voters in the State, while youths aged 18–34 make up approximately 36.6% of registered voters and the single largest voting bloc in the State and PwDs have demonstrated encouraging levels of awareness, PVC collection and confidence in INEC’s preparations. The EU-SDGN EOH calls on INEC, security agencies, political parties, civil society organisations, and relevant stakeholders to ensure the full, safe and unhindered participation of women, youths, and PwDs in the electoral process, including through the deliberate provision of transportation and assistive devices, gender-sensitive security planning, and priority voting for vulnerable persons.
VOTER INDUCEMENT, DISINFORMATION AND POLITICAL TENSION
The EU-SDGN EOH has identified the menace of vote buying and voter inducement as the highest threat to the credibility of tomorrow’s election, with reports of financial and material inducements circulating in the run-up to the poll. The Hub notes that INEC has indicated that plain-clothes financial intelligence officers, working with the EFCC and ICPC, will be deployed around polling units to deter and prosecute vote trading. Decisive evidence-based actions must be taken to monitor the activities of persons involved in this ignominious act of wanting to turn our democracy into a plutocracy. They must be arrested, investigated and prosecuted to serve as deterrence to others.
The pre-election information environment remains vulnerable to fake news, misinformation, disinformation and inflammatory political communication, particularly on Facebook, WhatsApp, TikTok, and X (Twitter). The Hub urges the media, civil society organisations, and regulatory bodies to intensify conflict-sensitive reporting and real-time fact-checking to prevent the escalation of tensions before, during and after the election.
EU-SDGN ELECTION OBSERVATION HUB RECOMMENDATIONS
To INEC
- Ensure the timely distribution of sensitive election materials to all polling units to guarantee that accreditation and voting commence by 8:30 am.
- Guarantee the seamless electronic transmission of validated polling unit results to the IReV portal in real time and maintain adequate BVAS backup capacity to avoid disruptions during accreditation and voting.
- Publish a clear protocol explaining the end-to-end results-transmission process, including the purpose of the electronic EC8A and the backend validation step preceding publication on the IReV, stating which version of a result prevails in the event of a discrepancy.
- Publish Ward (EC8B) and Local Government (EC8C) collation result sheets on the IReV alongside polling unit results to allow citizens, political parties and observers to verify results at every stage of collation.
- Ensure transparent and timely announcement of results at all levels, from polling units to Registration Areas, Local Government Areas and the State Collation Centre.
- Deploy trained personnel and adequate assistive voting devices to support the priority voting of women, youths, PWD, and other vulnerable persons.
To Political Parties
- Respect the sanctity of the 30 th July 2026 Peace Accord in its spirit and letter, accept the outcome of the election as declared by INEC and pursue any grievances through lawful and judicial means rather than protests, violence or self-help.
- Refrain from vote-buying, voter intimidation and the deployment of political thugs at polling units and collation centres and hold any supporters found destroying opponents’ campaign materials accountable.
To Security Agencies
- Maintain neutrality and professionalism at all times, avoiding any perception of bias in the discharge of election security duties and act swiftly and transparently on allegations of misconduct by security personnel themselves.
- Deploy adequate personnel and assets to the areas identified as critical and high-risk LGAs —and secure all transport routes, polling units and collation centres in advance rather than in response to trouble.
- Maintain robust inter-agency coordination through ICCES and respond rapidly and proportionately to any incidents of electoral violence, harassment, or disruption without partiality
- Publicly disclose progress on pending investigations into electoral violence, including arrests, charges and court dates to strengthen deterrence and demonstrate that impunity will not be tolerated.
To the Media
- Verify all information before publication to avoid amplifying fake news, misinformation, and disinformation, particularly content circulating on digital and social media platforms.
- Refrain from publishing or broadcasting results from unofficial sources until the official result is declared by INEC at the appropriate collation level.
- Adopt conflict-sensitive reporting on all aspects of the election to give the public a comprehensive and accurate picture of the electoral process and to douse tension.
To Voters
- Come out in large numbers, arrive at the designated polling unit early to ensure timely accreditation and voting in exercise of your constitutionally guaranteed right to vote.
- Vote freely and independently, based on your conscience and not on inducements, intimidation, or coercion.
- Decline financial or material inducements from any political party or candidate and report incidents of vote buying or electoral malpractice to INEC officials, security agencies, or
accredited observers.
Conclusion
The European Union Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria Election Observation Hub (EU- SDGN EOH) reiterates that the Osun State Governorship Election of 15 th August 2026 is a critical milestone, coming as the second major poll under the new electoral legal framework and a further bellwether ahead of the 2027 General Election. The Hub urges all stakeholders, INEC, political parties and their candidates, security agencies, the media, civil society organisations, traditional and religious leaders, and most importantly the voters of Osun State to discharge their respective responsibilities with integrity, professionalism and a sincere commitment to democratic principles.
The pre-election environment remains highly competitive and tense, shaped by intense elite rivalry, unresolved Local Government administration dispute, a fragile security environment and noticeable operational and logistics challenges. The credibility of the outcome of tomorrow’s election will depend on a free, fair, credible and peaceful polling, collation and declaration process, with a transparent and verifiable chain of results from polling unit to declaration. All electoral stakeholders must work to ensure that fear of potential violence, unresolved litigations, inadequate operational and logistical preparations or lingering distrust do not deter eligible voters from exercising their franchise or cast doubt on the outcome. The people of Osun State deserve a free, fair, credible, and inclusive election that transparently and accurately reflects their sovereign will.
The EU-SDGN EOH will continue to observe the election process and issue a preliminary Election Day Statement tomorrow and a Post-Election Report after the declaration of results.
